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76% of Economists Say: Expect a Tax Cut By November 2018

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the GOP-led Congress and President Trump to pass some kind of tax cut by November 2018.

President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin

More than three in four economists say the U.S. will get a tax cut before November 2018.

That’s the gist of a report released by Bloomberg after they surveyed 38 economists on tax reform.

The topline results, from Rich Miller and Catarina Saraiva:

Of 38 respondents, 29 expect Congress to pass tax-cut legislation by November 2018. The policy changes though are only expected to add 0.2 percentage point to the pace of gross domestic product expansion in 2018, according to the median figure from analysts penciling in an impact.

The Bloomberg survey forecasts growth in 2018 to be only slightly higher than this year — 2.3 percent versus 2.1 percent, according to median projections from a broader pool of 71 economists. What’s more, analysts see the economy losing momentum in 2019, with expansion falling back to 2 percent, contrasting with the Trump administration’s forecast of a further pickup.

The White House has assembled a “Red Team” on tax reform in an effort to ensure the tax fight is a smoother battle than the White House faced with Obamacare repeal and replacement.

The administration should, though, have the benefit of a more unified front from the majority party. Both Republican legislators and conservative groups are all-in for tax reform after the GOP’s health care efforts fell short.