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Could This Republican Beat Trump in a New Hampshire Primary in 2020?

A new poll suggests one Republican governor could beat President Trump in a New Hampshire primary if he decides to run against Trump in 2020.

A 2016 GOP debate

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) could beat President Trump in a 2020 New Hampshire primary, according to a new poll released by American Research Group, Inc. (ARG) this week.

ARG found that over half (52 percent) of “likely [Republican] primary voters” in 2020 would support Kasich, 40 percent would support Trump, and eight percent are undecided.

Other key statistics from ARG (screenshot below):

  • Kasich does better with undeclared voters (54-37 over Trump) than with Republicans (51-42) … but Kasich still wins New Hampshire Republicans
  • Kasich does way better with Republican women (64-28) than Republican men (40-53)

The New York Times noted this weekend that Kasich has not ruled out a primary challenge to President Trump in 2020:

Mr. Kasich has been more defiant: The Ohio governor, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016, has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews, and has indicated to associates that he may run again, even if Mr. Trump seeks another term.

Kasich’s potential challenge to Trump is ironic, given that some have argued Kasich’s extended and unsuccessful stay in the 2016 GOP primary killed the candidacies of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and others.