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Here’s How Hard Democrats’ Simple Plan to Win Back the House in 2018 Will Be

Some Democrats are bullish on taking back the majority in the House in 2018. A simple look at the number suggests it won’t be nearly that simple.

Nancy Pelosi Leadership Elections

Democrats are feeling good about their chances to take the majority in 2018, at least according to a new report from NBC News.

The report, headlined “Democrats’ Agenda: Win House in 2018, Investigate Donald Trump,” suggests the minority party has an easy, two-step plan to realizing their dream of defeating President Trump’s agenda.

Step one: “win the 24 seats they need to retake the House.”

Here’s the math on that effort though. Using the Cook Political Report ratings for 2018, Democrats will need to retain all 19 “likely” or “lean” Democratic seats, win all nine toss-ups, and win 17 of 37 “likely” or “lean” Republicans seats.

Using the ratings from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Democrats will need to retain all 20 “likely” or “leans” Democratic seats, win all 12 toss-ups, and win nine of 37 “likely” or “lean” Republican seats.

If recent history is a guide, Democrats are in trouble.

Despite liberal grassroots anger at Trump, Democrats lost a Kansas special election for now-CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s seat in April by seven points. And young Jon Ossoff is struggling in Georgia’s special election race against Republican Karen Handel, despite millions and millions of dollars in progressive money to spend.

Democrats’ plan to take back the House in 2018 is looking a bit like liberal Sally Kohn’s infamous tweet about Trump impeachment in February: