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How the Numbers Favor Republicans in Georgia’s 6th

Republicans make up a larger portion of potential voters than Democrats, and that could make all the difference…

Jon Ossoff Vote Record

Democrat Jon Ossoff fell about 3,600 votes short of an outright win in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District in the April primary. That razor-thin margin could make all the difference in the runoff scheduled for June 20.

Consider this: 35,000 voters in the district who cast Republican ballots in the March 2016 presidential primaries did not vote in the April special election. That number for Democrats was just 11,000.

And according to Politico’s “Morning Score,” that difference may already be taking effect. More than 7,200 people have already cast absentee ballots. Nearly 1,200 of those came from individuals who did not vote in the primary.

Of that group, 339 voted in the GOP primary during the 2016 presidential race, versus 105 who pulled Democratic presidential primary ballots on March 1, 2016. Turnout in round 1 was already near midterm levels — about 193,000 on April 18 compared to 210,000 in November 2014. But both parties are seeking to expand the electorate further in ways that will help them. While Democrats are focusing on thousands of newly registered voters, Republicans have a bigger pool of friendly-looking occasional voters to mine.

In other words, strictly going by the numbers, the path is a bit easier for Republican Karen Handel than Ossoff. And in a tight race, that could ultimately decide who wins and who loses come June 20.