Looking at the map right now, even the best case scenarios for Democrats see the GOP keeping their congressional majorities.
Roll Call updated their congressional seat ratings on Thursday for the upcoming 2018 midterms, and early predictions indicate trouble for the Democrats’ quest to reclaim the majority.
The Capitol Hill paper rated 202 House seats as “Solid Republican” in addition to 17 as “Likely Republican.” With 435 seats in the House, requiring one party control 218 seats for a majority, the GOP would reach a majority by adding up Roll Call’s “Solid” and “Likely” seats.
Things are worse for Chuck Schumer’s crew in the Senate, where most of the seats up for election this year are incumbent Democrats. Of the Republican Senate seats up for election, Roll Call rated only two as less than “Solid Republican.”
Conversely, Democrats will have to defend four Senate seats in toss-up states. Given the map right now, the best case scenario for Democrats in the Senate would be to force a 50-50 tie with Republicans (that would just be broken by Vice President Mike Pence’s vote). Worst-case scenario for Democrats would see the GOP expand its Senate majority to 56 or more seats.
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