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PREDICTIONS: An Early Look at 2018 Senate Races

Three states are pure toss-ups, while another seven lean R or D… Is it too early to predict how the midterms will shake out?

2018 Senate Predictions

Newly released ratings from the University of Virginia Center For Politics give the first glimpse of prognosticators’ predictions for 2018 Senate races. In the upcoming election, 23 Senate seats are held by Democrats, nine by Republicans and two by Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats).

In the new breakdown, five states lean Democrat (Florida, Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Wisconsin), four states are categorized as “likely Democrat” (Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia) and nine “Safe Democrat” states.

On the GOP side, two states lean Republican (Arizona, Nevada), one state is “likely Republican” (Texas), and six states are “Safe Republican.”

Of the two independent seats, Maine leans independent and Vermont is “Safe.”

That leaves three critical states in the toss-up category: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. In two of those states (Indiana and Missouri), GOP groups are already targeting the sitting senators, Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill, respectively.

It should be noted that these same prognosticators predicted a 322-216 Electoral College win for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, and they also predicted Democrats would pick up four seats (they only picked up two).