A bitter primary – and Donald Trump’s unpredictable general – have politicians and pundits reading the GOP their last rites. Beyond the panic? Three trends favoring the GOP this year and beyond.
Beyond the punditry and the “bed-wetting,” though, are three favorable trends for the GOP in 2016, 2017, and beyond.
1) VOTER REGISTRATION
According to a Wednesday AP report, Republicans have “added hundreds of thousands of voters to the rolls since 2012.” The GOP has “narrowed the gap” with Democrats in IA, FL, NC, NV, and AZ.
Even if Donald Trump loses some of these states to Hillary Clinton in the fall, the GOP’s registration gains are a good foundation for success in 2018 and 2020 races.
2) DEMOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGE OVERRATED?
Nate Cohn writes, in Wednesday’s The New York Times, that Democrats “were helped just as much by favorable turnout trends … and by favorable trends in support” as demographic trends.
Paired with recent articles revealing Clinton camp concerns over the lack of enthusiasm coming from the Obama coalition, there may be an opening for GOP candidates to build new coalitions.
One example? Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is beating Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL) among Hispanics, 46-39, according to a recent Univision poll.
3) SENATE FIREWALL
Last but not least, the GOP’s chances of keeping the Senate majority look better than ever. The liberal Huffington Post gave the GOP a 60 percent chance at keeping the Senate in its first “forecast model” released Monday.
Part of the reason? A 97 percent chance for Sen. Rubio to win re-election, and the strength of Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) against Ted Strickland … a new Bloomberg poll has Portman up 53-36.
A GOP-led Senate (and House) would act as a key check on Hillary Clinton’s liberal policy proposals, if she is elected president.
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