The battle between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel is coming down to the wire…
With just over a week to go until polls close, the race in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District is still too close to call, according to prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight.
Polls indicate Ossoff may be expanding his lead ever so slightly, but not enough for the Nate Silver-run site to make a prediction.
The race remains too close to call,” FiveThirtyEigh’s Harren Enten wrote. “Ossoff’s lead is slim, especially given the past accuracy of special House election polling, and we simply don’t know what to expect voter turnout to be in Round 2 compared with Round 1.”
Here’s how the numbers break down:
Whereas Ossoff was ahead by less than 1 point in an average of polls taken in March (before the primary, but after Handel emerged as the leading Republican candidate), he was ahead by an average of 5 points in the two polls with an end date in June. Crucially, the June polls show Ossoff winning 51 percent of the vote, or 53 percent when undecided voters are allocated proportionally. In the three weeks leading up to the primary, he averaged just 42 percent of the vote, or 46 percent once undecideds were allocated. Put another way, a Round 1 win for Ossoff would have meant the polls had underestimated him. In the runoff, he appears to be in good shape unless the polls are overestimating him.
The runoff date is June 20.
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