8 Senate Seats Will Decide Who Controls the Senate Majority; Dems Need to Sweep to Win 8 Senate Seats Will Decide Who Controls the Senate Majority; Dems Need to Sweep to Win – NTK Network

8 Senate Seats Will Decide Who Controls the Senate Majority; Dems Need to Sweep to Win

Conventional wisdom says the battle for the U.S. Senate is down to eight toss-up races. To win control of the upper chamber, Democrats need all of them.

By NTK Staff | 11.05.2018 @12:00pm
8 Senate Seats Will Decide Who Controls the Senate Majority; Dems Need to Sweep to Win

It’s one day before Election Day, and both conventional wisdom and polling trends suggest the battle for U.S. Senate control is down to eight toss-up races.

While Democrats can still take control of the upper chamber, they would need to see all five of their most vulnerable incumbents win – and all five in states Donald Trump won in 2016 – and take three seats away from Republicans.

Here’s NTK Network’s breakdown of the eight most competitive races:

AZ-Sen. (OPEN; was REPUBLICAN-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (six polls): D+0.7
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): D+1.9
  • Spending so far: $93M ($33M by candidates, $60M by outside groups)

FL-Sen. (DEMOCRATIC-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (11 polls): D+2.4
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): D+2.4
  • Spending so far: $181M ($91M by candidates, $90M by outside groups)

IN-Sen. (DEMOCRATIC-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (four polls): D+0.8
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): D+0.8
  • Spending so far: $96M ($29M by candidates, $67M by outside groups)

MO-Sen. (DEMOCRATIC-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (five polls): R+1.8
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): R+0.8
  • Spending so far: $117M ($41M by candidates, $76M by outside groups)

MT-Sen. (DEMOCRATIC-HELD)

  • No NTK Polls
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): D+4.2
  • Spending so far: $64M ($22M by candidates, $42M by outside groups)

NV-Sen. (REPUBLICAN-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (one poll): D+3
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): R+1.4
  • Spending so far: $98M ($33M by candidates, $65M by outside groups)

TN-Sen. (OPEN; was REPUBLICAN-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (nine polls): R+5.1
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): R+5.2
  • Spending so far: $80M ($27M by candidates, $53M by outside groups)

WV-Sen. (DEMOCRATIC-HELD)

  • NTK Polls average (one poll): D+5
  • RealClearPolitics average (as of November 5): D+5.0
  • Spending so far: $45M ($11M by candidates, $34M by outside groups)

If you go with the NTK Polls averages, here’s what would happen:

  • Democrats would hold four of their five seats and flip two of three Republican-held seats, giving them 49 of 100 seats
  • Republicans would hold one of their three seats (Tennessee) and flip one Democrat-held seat (Missouri), giving them 51 of 100 seats

If you go with the RealClearPolitics averages, here’s what would happen:

  • Democrats would hold four of their five seats and flip one of three Republican-held seats, giving them 48 of 100 seats
  • Republicans would hold two of their three seats (Nevada and Tennessee) and flip one Democrat-held seat (Missouri), giving them 52 of 100 seats

Either set of polling averages has Republicans holding their majority. Of course, polling can be very wrong – just ask Hillary Clinton. All told, though, it’s an uphill battle for Democrats to retake the upper chamber. Stay with NTK Network tomorrow as we watch the results come in.

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