ANALYSIS: Red-State Dems Have Seen Average Drop of 11 Points in Approval Since Start of ’18 Cycle ANALYSIS: Red-State Dems Have Seen Average Drop of 11 Points in Approval Since Start of ’18 Cycle – NTK Network

ANALYSIS: Red-State Dems Have Seen Average Drop of 11 Points in Approval Since Start of ’18 Cycle

An analysis of Morning Consult's quarterly polling shows every single red-state Democrat up for reelection in 2018 has seen a drop in net approval over the last year-plus.

By NTK Staff | 04.13.2018 @9:30am
ANALYSIS: Red-State Dems Have Seen Average Drop of 11 Points in Approval Since Start of ’18 Cycle

Morning Consult released its quarterly approval numbers on Thursday, and the results, at face value, revealed more bad news for red-state Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2018.

However, an analysis of Morning Consult‘s quarterly results, since the beginning of the 2017-18 election cycle, paints an even worse picture for Senate Democrats.

Since the first quarter of 2017, all 10 red-state Senate Democrats running in 2018 have seen a drop in their net approval. The drops range from small – a five-point drop for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) – to staggering – a 25-point drop for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).

The average drop across all 10 senators, though, is 10.7 points. That’s bad news for Democrats looking to retake the Senate, or even hold their current 49 seats. If these senators drop another 10 points this year, all will be at or near negative net approval by the November elections.

Below is the full senator-by-senator analysis.

Tammy Baldwin (WI) – 8-point drop

Joe Donnelly (IN) – 10-point drop

Debbie Stabenow (MI) – 5-point drop

Claire McCaskill (MO) – 13-point drop

Bob Casey (PA) – 10-point drop

Sherrod Brown (OH) – 5-point drop

Jon Tester (MT) – 2-point drop

Joe Manchin (WV) – 25-point drop

Heidi Heitkamp (ND) – 20-point drop

Bill Nelson (FL) – 9-point drop

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