Carlos Curbelo Leads Democrat Challenger in Latest NYT Poll Carlos Curbelo Leads Democrat Challenger in Latest NYT Poll – NTK Network

Carlos Curbelo Leads Democrat Challenger in Latest NYT Poll

The Florida representative is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the 2018 midterms.

By NTK Staff | 09.18.2018 @11:00am
Carlos Curbelo Leads Democrat Challenger in Latest NYT Poll

If Republicans hope to keep control of the House in 2018, or at least mitigate Democrat gains, a few key House districts will be key to that strategy. One of those in Florida’s 26th Congressional District, which spans from South Miami-Dade County to Key West.

According to a New York Times poll, Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) leads Democrat challenge Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 47-44. It’s a good result for Curbelo, given that Hillary Clinton won the district by 16 points in 2016, and President Obama won there in 2012 by a 12-point margin.

Still, given Curbelo’s background and the district’s heavily Cuban-American makeup, The Cook Political Report rates the district as “Lean Republican.” Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight labels FL-26 as a “Toss-Up.”

Curbelo is a legal immigration advocate and an occasional Trump critic, which may actually work to his advantage in this South Florida district.

According to the poll, which sampled just 509 voters, another nine percent of respondents were undecided about who they will support in November. This is where Curbelo could get into trouble:

About 9 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Democrats.

If they were to break 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly.

Still, the small sample size of the poll could impact its accuracy.

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