Depending on the Poll, Ted Cruz Either Has a Comfortable Lead or a Tight Race Depending on the Poll, Ted Cruz Either Has a Comfortable Lead or a Tight Race – NTK Network

Depending on the Poll, Ted Cruz Either Has a Comfortable Lead or a Tight Race

Two polls released Monday show the incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz in very different races with Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

By NTK Staff | 06.25.2018 @11:15am
Depending on the Poll, Ted Cruz Either Has a Comfortable Lead or a Tight Race

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads El Paso area Rep. Beto O’Rourke by a margin of 10 percentage points, according to a new poll released by CBS News on Monday.

The poll of likely Texas voters gave Cruz a comfortable lead with about 4 months to go until Election Day. According to CBS News, Cruz’s advantages are broad support from Republicans and an advantage among Texas independents:

In Texas’ Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz has a 10-point lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke among likely voters. Cruz benefits from strong support from his own party and has an advantage among independents as well. O’Rourke is supported by Democrats, leads with Hispanics and has an edge with women. Cruz performs well with whites and men.

The CBS poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

But, another poll of Texas voters paints a very different picture. The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Monday showed Cruz with just a five-point lead. While this poll still shows Cruz leading O’Rourke, 41-36, it’s a far closer race than the CBS poll.

The key difference in these two polls could be who the pollsters spoke to. While the CBS News poll was a survey of likely voters, the UT/Texas Tribune poll was of registered voters. Here’s why that’s significant:

The June UT/TT Poll, conducted from June 8 to June 17, is an early look at the 2018 general election, a survey of registered voters — not of the “likely voters” whose intentions will become clearer in the weeks immediately preceding the election. If recent history is the guide, most registered voters won’t vote in November; according to the Texas Secretary of State, only 34 percent of registered voters turned out in 2014, the last gubernatorial election year.

Given that explanation, it seems likely that the Texas Senate race is likely closer to the 10-point margin of the CBS poll than it is the five-point margin of the UT/Texas Tribune poll.

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