Experts Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, Per Economic Models | NTK Network Experts Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, Per Economic Models

Experts Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, Per Economic Models

Three different experts who use modeling to determine political outcomes all say Trump should win reelection in 2020.

By NTK Staff | 05.28.2019 @10:35am
Experts Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, Per Economic Models

President Donald Trump could very well cruise to victory in 2020, if economic models are correct in their predictions.

Economists, professors, and analysts have developed a series of models that use economic indicators to help predict political outcomes. In three separate models that use factors like gross domestic product, inflation, and incumbency, Trump wins reelection in each.

One model, developed by Yale professor Ray Fair, accurately predicted the 2008 and 2012 victories by Barack Obama down to just a few tenths of a percent for the overall popular vote.

Fair’s model actually predicted Trump would win the 2016 contest with 54.1 percent of the popular vote, indicating that factors like individual personality and favorability can throw off the model considerably.

Still, Trump’s incumbency and the strength of the U.S. economy should propel Trump to another win in 2020, per Fair’s model:

In its present state, the economy will also be helpful to the president. All told, Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent. But that’s before factoring in his personality. As recent polls show, if the election were today, he would lose to most of the Democratic hopefuls by a substantial margin; in the case of Joe Biden, by nearly eight percentage points.

It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.

A strong economy puts Trump in a favorable position to win reelection next year. And while certain “X factors” can move those numbers up or down, at least three separate economic models show that 2020 is Trump’s to lose right now.

Sign Up

for NTK updates every week.


View Privacy Policy