Good News for GOP: 538 Predicts Democrats Will Retake Control of House Good News for GOP: 538 Predicts Democrats Will Retake Control of House – NTK Network

Good News for GOP: 538 Predicts Democrats Will Retake Control of House

FiveThirtyEight predicted, by almost an identical margin, that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump on Election Day 2016.

By NTK Staff | 08.16.2018 @1:17pm
Good News for GOP: 538 Predicts Democrats Will Retake Control of House

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog reported on Thursday that it is giving Democrats a three-in-four chance of winning back control of the House after the 2018 midterm elections. This might be unexpected good news for House Republicans, and their chances to keep control of the House.

According to ABC News:

FiveThirtyEight’s newly launched House forecast gives them a 3-in-4 chance of winning the majority. Republicans have a 1-in-4 chance of keeping control.

That’s according to a statistical model that looks at polls of each race, how much money each candidate has raised, how each district has voted historically and more.

This will come as good news to House Republicans, who might recall that FiveThirtyEight predicted that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump by almost an identical margin.

On Election Day 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 71.4-percent chance of winning the presidential election, and Trump only 28.6-percent chance.

“Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state,” FiveThirtyEight wrote on the morning of November 8, 2016.

FiveThirtyEight projected that Clinton would receive 302 electoral college votes while Trump would receive just 235.

After the polls closed, it was Trump who had received 304 electoral college votes, not Clinton, making Trump the 45th president of the United States.

So, if history is any indicator then it would appear that Republicans are likely to keep control of the House, based on FiveThirtyEight‘s track record.

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