Group Moves CO-Gov. in Polis’s Favor, Because of His Money and They ‘Heard’ Polis is Leading Group Moves CO-Gov. in Polis’s Favor, Because of His Money and They ‘Heard’ Polis is Leading – NTK Network

Group Moves CO-Gov. in Polis’s Favor, Because of His Money and They ‘Heard’ Polis is Leading

Based on what they "heard" and on Jared Polis's massive spending in the Colorado gubernatorial race, Sabato's Crystall Ball moved the contest from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic."

By NTK Staff | 09.21.2018 @12:15pm
Group Moves CO-Gov. in Polis’s Favor, Because of His Money and They ‘Heard’ Polis is Leading

Sabato’s Crystal Ball – a national race prognosticator that rates U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial races – moved the Colorado gubernatorial race from a “Toss-up” to a “Leans Democratic” contest on Thursday. Their evidence in moving the contest in Jared Polis’s favor, though, is flimsy at best.

The group’s two reasons for moving the contest toward the Democrats seem to be: 1) they “heard” Polis is ahead, and 2) Polis is spending lots of money to win.

The other change comes in Colorado, where wealthy Rep. Jared Polis (D, CO-2) faces state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R). Unlike in Michigan, where there’s been a lot of public polls, there’s hardly been any in Colorado, although we have heard that Polis is leading, but perhaps only by a small amount. While Polis is an imperfect candidate — he recently snubbed a longstanding rural state political gathering for no good reason that we could tell — he has a ton of money and is running as a Democrat in a Democratic year in a state that is trending Democratic. So Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. If Polis wins, his victory would be the Democrats’ fourth-straight Colorado gubernatorial win.

It’s true that Polis is spending millions of dollars of his own fortune to win. On the one hand, those millions can buy a lot of ads and a field organization. On the other hand, Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 upended the traditional notion that more campaign spending always means a better chance of electoral victory.

The first reason, though, is flimsy at best. Who has Sabato’s Crystal Ball “heard” from on the Colorado gubernatorial matchup? Polis’s campaign or allies? Stapleton’s campaign or allies? Without knowing the source of internal polling in the race, or how much Polis is ahead in these polls, it seems like shaky reasoning to move the contest in Polis’s favor.

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