How the New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Impacts 2018 … and 2020 How the New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Impacts 2018 … and 2020 – NTK Network

How the New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Impacts 2018 … and 2020

President Trump has secured a new trade deal with America's neighbors, and it may help his party's chances in both the 2018 midterms and the 2020 elections.

By NTK Staff | 10.01.2018 @10:30am
How the New U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Impacts 2018 … and 2020

On Sunday, the Trump administration announced it reached a renegotiated trade deal with Mexico and Canada. The agreement ends, for now, the threat of a complete withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), originally signed under President Clinton in 1994.

Free traders had warned that a complete withdrawal from NAFTA, without a replacement deal, would have disastrous effects on the U.S. economy.

Reuters reported Monday morning that the deal “is aimed at bringing more jobs into the United States, with Canada and Mexico accepting more restrictive commerce with the United States.”

The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is aimed at bringing more jobs into the United States, with Canada and Mexico accepting more restrictive commerce with the United States, their main export partner.

While changing NAFTA and bringing down U.S. trade deficits was a top Trump campaign pledge, Sunday’s agreement largely leaves the broad deal intact and maintains current supply chains that would have been fractured under weaker bilateral deals.

By avoiding a withdrawal disaster and earning a trade ‘win,’ President Trump may help himself and his party at the polls, both this November and in 2020. Here’s how the new, U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMC) trade deal may help Republicans in both cycles.

2018

Back in November 2017, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce – the top group for business interests in America – assembled the top 12 states that “would be hit hardest by withdrawing from NAFTA.” Nine of the 12 have competitive U.S. Senate races:

  • #1: Michigan (Democrat Debbie Stabenow is up for reelection against Republican John James)
  • #2: Wisconsin (Democrat Tammy Baldwin is up for reelection against Republican Leah Vukmir)
  • #3: North Dakota (Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is up for reelection against Republican Kevin Cramer)
  • #4: Texas (Republican Ted Cruz is up for reelection against Democrat Beto O’Rourke)
  • #5: Missouri (Democrat Claire McCaskill is up for reelection against Republican Josh Hawley)
  • #6: Ohio (Democrat Sherrod Brown is up for reelection against Republican Jim Renacci)
  • #8: Indiana (Democrat Joe Donnelly is up for reelection against Republican Mike Braun)
  • #9: Arizona (Democrat Kyrsten Sinema faces off against Republican Martha McSally for an open seat)
  • #11: Pennsylvania (Democrat Bob Casey is up for reelection against Republican Lou Barletta)

Avoiding job loss and, as President Trump asserts, protecting U.S. jobs in these states, and others, may help Republicans running against vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the last month of the general election.

2020

Trump’s trade win may help him win reelection, too. Six of the 12 states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina – are already considered 2020 battlegrounds. Depending on who Democrats nominate, more of those states identified by the Chamber of Commerce may become competitive.

Trump won all six of those states in 2016, and they’re key to his reelection hopes.

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