New Poll Shows Candidate Who Received Taylor Swift's First Endorsement Ever is Down 14 Points | NTK Network New Poll Shows Candidate Who Received Taylor Swift’s First Endorsement Ever is Down 14 Points

New Poll Shows Candidate Who Received Taylor Swift’s First Endorsement Ever is Down 14 Points

Phil Bredesen received Taylor Swift's endorsement this week. A new New York Times poll shows him down 14 points in his U.S. Senate race – well outside the margin of error.

By NTK Staff | 10.12.2018 @4:30pm
New Poll Shows Candidate Who Received Taylor Swift’s First Endorsement Ever is Down 14 Points

On Monday, pop superstar Taylor Swift endorsed ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN) in his race to win a U.S. Senate seat being vacated by a Republican, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN).

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I’m writing this post about the upcoming midterm elections on November 6th, in which I’ll be voting in the state of Tennessee. In the past I’ve been reluctant to publicly voice my political opinions, but due to several events in my life and in the world in the past two years, I feel very differently about that now. I always have and always will cast my vote based on which candidate will protect and fight for the human rights I believe we all deserve in this country. I believe in the fight for LGBTQ rights, and that any form of discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender is WRONG. I believe that the systemic racism we still see in this country towards people of color is terrifying, sickening and prevalent. I cannot vote for someone who will not be willing to fight for dignity for ALL Americans, no matter their skin color, gender or who they love. Running for Senate in the state of Tennessee is a woman named Marsha Blackburn. As much as I have in the past and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn. Her voting record in Congress appalls and terrifies me. She voted against equal pay for women. She voted against the Reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, which attempts to protect women from domestic violence, stalking, and date rape. She believes businesses have a right to refuse service to gay couples. She also believes they should not have the right to marry. These are not MY Tennessee values. I will be voting for Phil Bredesen for Senate and Jim Cooper for House of Representatives. Please, please educate yourself on the candidates running in your state and vote based on who most closely represents your values. For a lot of us, we may never find a candidate or party with whom we agree 100% on every issue, but we have to vote anyway. So many intelligent, thoughtful, self-possessed people have turned 18 in the past two years and now have the right and privilege to make their vote count. But first you need to register, which is quick and easy to do. October 9th is the LAST DAY to register to vote in the state of TN. Go to and you can find all the info. Happy Voting! 🗳😃🌈

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It is Swift’s first public political endorsement, and it reportedly spurred a surge in voter registration in the state.

The impact isn’t showing up in polling, though. The New York Times just completed a poll of the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee, and found Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) up a whopping 14 points, 54 percent to Bredesen’s 40 percent.

That’s well outside the poll’s 4.2-point margin of error. Under that margin, the most favorable scenario for Bredesen is that he’s down 5.6 points (49.8 percent for Blackburn, 44.2 percent for Bredesen). The most favorable scenario for Blackburn? She’s up 22.4 points (58.2 percent to Bredesen’s 35.8 percent).

Every turnout scenario the Times ran has Blackburn up with a comfortable lead:

  • The types of people who voted in 2014: Blackburn +21
  • People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say: Blackburn +14
  • Our estimate: Blackburn +14
  • People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness: Blackburn +14
  • People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else: Blackburn +11
  • The types of people who voted in 2016: Blackburn +15
  • Every active registered voter: Blackburn +9

Fortunately for Bredesen, there are a number of Swift songs he can play on election night, depending on the percentage he loses by:

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