New (Private) Iowa Poll: Biden Holds Big Lead in 2020 Dem Caucus | NTK Network New (Private) Iowa Poll: Biden Holds Big Lead in 2020 Dem Caucus

New (Private) Iowa Poll: Biden Holds Big Lead in 2020 Dem Caucus

The polls are here. The presidential primary season is coming.

By NTK Staff | 10.01.2018 @1:30pm
New (Private) Iowa Poll: Biden Holds Big Lead in 2020 Dem Caucus

Ex-Vice President Joe Biden holds a big lead on his would-be Democratic presidential primary opponents in the 2020 Iowa caucus, and it’s not even close.

According to a private poll obtained by The New York Times, Biden, earns support from 37 percent of would-be caucusgoers among a crowded field of candidates. The next-best performing candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), is 21 points behind. She earns 16 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) earns 12 percent.

Here’s how the whole field shakes out:

  • Biden: 37 percent (32 percent “certain,” 5 percent “Lean Biden”)
  • Warren: 16 percent (14 percent certain, 2 percent leaners)
  • Sanders: 12 percent (11 percent certain, 1 percent leaners)
  • Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): 10 percent (8 percent certain, 2 percent leaners)
  • Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): 8 percent (6 percent certain, 2 percent leaners)

All other candidates earn two percent or less.

The private poll also measured the favorability of 15 potential 2020 Democrats in Iowa. All 15 are above water, but Stormy Daniels attorney Michael Avenatti has a notably-high unfavorability rating among Iowa Democrats (18 percent, to only 29 percent who favor Avenatti).

Biden’s favorability among Democrats is extraordinary: 94 percent of Iowa Dems favor Biden, and only four percent have an unfavorable view.

The poll would appear to give Biden an early edge in the 2020 jockeying, should he decide to run.

However, things can change rapidly in a presidential race. At this time in the 2016 election cycle, two polls at the time had a very different picture of the wide-open GOP primary:

  • September 2014, McClatchy/Marist: Jeb Bush 15%, Rand Paul 13%, Paul Ryan 13%, Chris Christie 12%, Rick Perry 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Scott Walker 3%, undecided 21%
  • October 2014, Washington Post/ABC News: Jeb Bush 15%, Rand Paul 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Paul Ryan 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Rick Perry 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Scott Walker 1%, other/no opinion 14%

Jeb Bush, the leader in both polls, dropped out after South Carolina. Rand Paul, the second-place finisher, dropped out after Iowa. The eventual runner-up in the GOP primaries, Ted Cruz, was polling at four percent.

As for the eventual winner and current president, Donald Trump? He didn’t register in either poll. All that says is a lot can, and will, happen in the Democratic primary between now and January 2020.

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