Pelosi Says Florida is ‘Key’ for Democrats in 2018. Here’s How That Could Backfire. Pelosi Says Florida is ‘Key’ for Democrats in 2018. Here’s How That Could Backfire. – NTK Network

Pelosi Says Florida is ‘Key’ for Democrats in 2018. Here’s How That Could Backfire.

Keeping two seats held by Democrats and winning four Republican-held seats is “key” for Democrats retaking the majority in the House, Pelosi said on Wednesday.

By NTK Staff | 05.03.2018 @11:00am
Pelosi Says Florida is ‘Key’ for Democrats in 2018. Here’s How That Could Backfire.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the Tampa Bay Times on Wednesday why Florida is so critical to Democrats retaking the majority in the House.

The California Democrat spoke to the Times prior to a Democratic fundraising event with Rep. Charlie Crist of St. Petersburg. She said holding Crist’s seat — and that of Winter Park Rep. Stephanie Murphy — is key to winning the House.

Pelosi also named four Florida seats the party is trying to flip: Two in Miami held by Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who is retiring, and Carlos Curbelo; the one held by Rep. Brian Mast of Palm City and the seat held by Rep. Ron DeSantis of Palm Coast, who is running for governor.

But an analysis by the Washington Post reveals that Democrats might have a hard time flipping those Florida seats. When evaluating special elections that have taken place in the state since November 2016, Florida is one of the very few states that has trended more Republican.

In most states where the average has been a shift to the Republicans, Hillary Clinton won in 2016. States like Connecticut, Massachusetts and Washington were voting on Donald Trump as a presidential candidate but, generally, on more moderate Republicans in the special elections. It is no surprise, therefore, that those Republicans are doing better than Trump did.

But Trump won Utah and Florida, two states where the special election results also move to the right. Utah has had only one special election, but it was also the red state that shifted the most away from the Republican candidate between 2012 and 2016 (a function of loving Mitt Romney and being deeply skeptical of Trump). Florida, then, is an outlier.

Why? Why is Florida the state that is bucking the blue-wave trend?

The answer, according to one political scientist who spoke to the Post, is the age of Florida’s electorate. “Older voters turn out in Florida at very high rates — much higher rates than in other states,” he said.

So if Democrats are planning to retake the House majority in 2018, they may very well struggle to make inroads in parts of the Sunshine State. Floridians are used to being the voters who can swing a national trend one way or another, and it appears this midterm election will be no different.

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