Report: Bill Nelson Needs a Miracle That Likely Won’t Come Report: Bill Nelson Needs a Miracle That Likely Won’t Come – NTK Network

Report: Bill Nelson Needs a Miracle That Likely Won’t Come

Down 12,000 votes, there’s very little that last-minute lawsuits can do to reverse the outcome.

By NTK Staff | 11.15.2018 @9:00am
Report: Bill Nelson Needs a Miracle That Likely Won’t Come

As Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) traveled to Washington, D.C. Wednesday for freshman orientation at the U.S. Senate, liberals on Twitter and television were outraged. What right did Scott have to act as if he’d already won?

But the reality is, Scott earned more votes than incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in the initial tally of votes, and a new report reveals it’s very unlikely that the Democrat’s last-minute lawsuits and delay tactics will change the outcome.

Scott led Nelson by 12,000 votes when all of the votes were counted. That state is currently conducting a machine recount that could lead to a hand-recount. The biggest problem for Nelson is that overcoming a 12,000-vote margin is highly unlikely.

According to a FairVote database of statewide recounts from 2000 to 2015, the average recount moves the margin by 0.02 points. Nelson needs the margin to move by nearly eight times as much.

The recount with the largest shift was the Vermont Auditor of Accounts race in 2006. The margin shifted in that by 0.11 points, which is still less than what Nelson needs.

In terms of pure votes, it doesn’t look any better for Nelson. The average recount from 2000 to 2015 shifted the result by 282 votes. You don’t need to be a math wizard to know that 282 is considerably less than 12,000. The maximum change in the margin in any recount from 2000 to 2015 was 1,247 votes. That is far less than the change in the margin Nelson needs to overtake Scott.

As CNN noted, “[v]ery few recounts actually turn losers into winners,” noting that just three in 27 elections with a recount wound up with a different winner at the end of the recount.

So while Democrats complain about Scott’s orientation, a quick look at the math suggests it’s probably a good use of governor’s time.

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