Roll Call: McCaskill 3rd-Most Vulnerable Incumbent in the Country Roll Call: McCaskill 3rd-Most Vulnerable Incumbent in the Country – NTK Network

Roll Call: McCaskill 3rd-Most Vulnerable Incumbent in the Country

One of Roll Call's final 'most vulnerable' lists before the election again finds the Missouri senator in a precarious position.

By NTK Staff | 10.04.2018 @10:00am
Roll Call: McCaskill 3rd-Most Vulnerable Incumbent in the Country

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is the third-most vulnerable incumbent senator up for reelection in 2018, according to the latest list from Roll Call. She’s also the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat, and one of four senators in a “Toss-up” race this fall.

Here’s Roll Call‘s rundown of the precarious position McCaskill is in, with one month to go until Election Day:

McCaskill stays put at No. 3, running in a state Trump carried by 19 points. She has been stressing health care, prompting the GOP nominee, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, to air a TV ad saying he supports protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Hawley, a former Supreme Court clerk, is hoping the battle over the high court vacancy could energize Republican voters. McCaskill said prior to Ford’s testimony that she would oppose Kavanaugh because of his views on campaign finance. Polling has shown a tight race here, and McCaskill has to peel off some independent and conservative-leaning voters while driving up Democratic turnout.

Race rating: Toss-up

The one Democrat finishing ahead of McCaskill is Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), who in recent polls is losing to Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) by double digits. Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), in a tossup race with Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), is ranked one ahead of McCaskill on the ‘most vulnerable’ list.

McCaskill may ascend future iterations of this list, though, if polling continues to trend in the direction of her opponent, Attorney General Josh Hawley (R-MO). This bit, from Axios:

Missouri Rising Action, a super PAC backing Republican Josh Hawley, yesterday got back numbers from pollster Jim McLaughlin showing Hawley leading Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) by 52-44. … That’s a huge swing from the previous poll, in June, which had McCaskill leading Hawley 46-42.

There will be more public polls of the McCaskill-Hawley race between now and November, so political observers will get more chances to handicap this race, one of the closest in the country.

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