The Top 5 Reasons Democrats Might Not Take Back the House in 2018 | NTK Network The Top 5 Reasons Democrats Might Not Take Back the House in 2018

The Top 5 Reasons Democrats Might Not Take Back the House in 2018

“Taking back the House will be harder than Democrats think,” The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty wrote Tuesday night.

By NTK Staff | 02.07.2018 @11:15am
The Top 5 Reasons Democrats Might Not Take Back the House in 2018

Democrats looking to make big gains in House and Senate races this year could be facing more of an uphill battle than they originally realized.

While political analysts say “off year” elections benefit the party not in power (in this case, the Democrats), The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty lays out five reasons why Democrats shouldn’t be popping bottles of champagne just yet.

1. Polls Are Turning

Already, Democratic strategists are getting a little jumpy about the party’s shrinking advantage in the polls, especially the closely watched generic-ballot test, where voters are asked which party they would prefer to represent them in Congress.

The spread is running at 6.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average — just half where it was at the beginning of the year. It shows an electorate still inclined to vote Democratic but probably not by enough to flip the House.

2. Too Many Candidates

But now, there are eight other candidates in the [VA-10] primary, and [the party’s preferred candidate, Jennifer] Wexton is falling short in fundraising to Alison Friedman, an anti-human-trafficking activist who moved to the district in April. Friedman — backed by a host of liberal celebrities, among them Barbra Streisand — has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars more than Wexton.

In crowded primaries, Republicans will be rooting from the sidelines for the liberal base to pull all of the candidates leftward — forcing them to declare allegiance to single-payer health care, impeaching Trump, free college tuition. Those are October attack ads in waiting in many of the scattered pockets where Democrats need to win.

3. Economic Confidence

Meanwhile, economic confidence — notwithstanding Monday’s market plunge — has reached a level not seen in 17 years. That suggests, among other things, that the tax cuts that looked so unpopular when they were passed in December may be an asset to Republicans by this fall.

4. Money

On the money front, Democrats were already expecting to be outspent by at least $100 million. Then the Koch brothers informed their donors late last month that they were going to put as much as $400 million into the midterms, their largest commitment ever. In House races, a million dollars here and there can make the difference.

5. Trump

Finally, perhaps the single biggest miscalculation that Democrats could make right now is to expect Trump to do all their work for them.

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