This One Chart Explains Why Democrats Won’t Win the Senate in 2018 This One Chart Explains Why Democrats Won’t Win the Senate in 2018 – NTK Network

This One Chart Explains Why Democrats Won’t Win the Senate in 2018

“It would take a tsunami, not a wave” for Democrats to retake to the Senate, according to Axios.

By NTK Staff | 05.08.2018 @11:00am
This One Chart Explains Why Democrats Won’t Win the Senate in 2018

Six months out from the 2018 midterms, Democrats are buzzing with thoughts of retaking control of the House and Senate, but a new report from media company Axios throws cold water on the notion of a Democratic Senate in 2019.

Their reasoning? History. Democrats must retain all of their Senate seats in 2018 and pick up two Republican-held seats to retake the majority. And according to this chart, something on that scale bas basically not happened in more than 24 years.

Senate Democrats Axios Chart

Here’s how Axios breaks down the numbers:

Reality check: It would take a tsunami, not a wave. Of the 35 seats up in 2018, 26 are held by Democrats or independents who caucus with the Democrats. And 10 of them are up for re-election in states won by President Trump in 2016, while Republicans only have to defend one seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton.

How to read this chart: Each rectangle is a senator up for election in a given year. Seats on the left side of the chart are seats in states carried by a Democrat in the previous presidential election. Seats on the right side were last won by a Republican. The dots inside the rectangles indicate seats that changed parties in the election.

The fact is, some Senate Democrats are running in states that President Trump won by more than 20 percentage points. Ultimately, many of these races will be determined by the quality of the Republican candidates running against the Democratic incumbents. Those questions will begin to be answered on Tuesday, when the first wave of GOP primary voters select candidates in states like Indiana and West Virginia.

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